CO129-363 - Public Offices & Others - 1909 — Page 13

[This Document is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Government?.

[B]

AFFAIRS OF CHINA.

CONFIDENTIAL.

[38226]

No. 1.

36592 İRECE

BEGE 5 NOVOS [October 16.]

12

SECTION 1.

Sir A. Nicolson to Sir Edward Grey.-(Received October 16.)

(No. 552. Confidential.) Sir,

St. Petersburgh, October 11, 1909.

I HAVE the honour to transmit herewith a despatch from Colonel Wyndham, military attaché to this embassy, regarding the relations between Russia and Japan, and I would beg leave to call attention to the observations of the Japanese military attaché, which are of interest.

A considerable sum of money is to be allotted this year towards the construction of the Amur Railway, and also to the duplication of the Trans-Siberian Railway, but I do not think that either of the new undertakings bave other than strictly defensive and commercial objects. It is impossible to foretell what may occur eight years hence-a critical moment, according to the Japanese military attaché-but I am firmly convinced that at present there is in no circle in Russia the slightest desire to provoke troubles of any nature in the Far East, or to undertake a war of revenge.

Although the Japanese military attaché re-echoes the opinions of his Ambassador, and possibly of his own Government, in stating that the thought of Japan initiating a war with Russia is absurd, I hardly think that his statement that Japan would strike at once if she considered that Russia was undertaking any aggressive preparations would tend, if known, to allay the uneasiness which is beginning to be felt in some Russian circles. It is difficult always to discriminate between what are aggressive and what are defensive preparations, and the interpretation is apt to be given according to the desire and interests of one of the parties.

I have, &c.

A. NICOLSON.

Inclosure in No. 1.

Colonel Wyndham to Sir A. Nicolson.

(Confidential.) Sir,

St. Petersburgh, October 11, 1909. CERTAIN notices have appeared in the press as to Russia's intention of increasing her forces in the Far East by about 30,000 men, and one gathers that there is some anxiety felt here as to Japan's attitude.

As regards the above statement, I am of opinion that an immediate increase is not contemplated. Indeed it is hard to conceive from where the troops could at present be drawn and how found in winter quarters. I do, however, think it possible that in drawing up the scheme of army reorganisation and imperial defence such an increase of strength in the Far East has been under discussion, and that the press has got hold of this as some months ago it did of the discussion as to the withdrawal of the troops on the western frontier to a more backward line of defence.

As I pointed out then any such measures must take time and must form part of an entire scheme of organisation for the defence of the Empire as a whole.

In such a scheme it is quite possible that both the above-mentioned points may be eventually decided on, that is to say, that the Far East may be strengthened by additional troops and the western frontier strengthened by a better strategical disposal of the troops now employed on it, whilst a strong and more rapidly mobilised main One of the force is constituted in central Russia ready to reinforce either frontier. main points in the scheme may be the gradual transformation of the reserve formations, which I believe are peculiar to the Russian army, into corps or divisions constituted I have heard it said that discussion of the as the existing corps and divisions are. proposed reorganisation scheme is now well advanced and that possibly the Minister of War's recent visit to Livadia to see the Emperor was in connection with important decisions being taken as regards this scheme as well as in connection with the Finnish army subsidy question.

[2462 q-1]

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